Bears, Broncos Named as Teams Likely to Regress in 2026
Both the Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos were still alive deep into the playoffs this past season, and expectations are sky high this Fall for both teams.
The Broncos, who nearly made a Super Bowl appearance despite a season-ending injury to Quarterback Bo Nix, are among the favorites in the AFC.
The Chicago Bears are the darlings of the offseason in the NFC, and are also firmly in the contender mix in their respective conference.
Not everyone has such an optimistic attitude to the pair of area teams, as both are listed in the article highlighting five teams primed to regress this season at ESPN:
Chicago Bears
Record in 2025: 11-6 (7-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer)
Point differential in 2025: plus-26
Projected strength of schedule: 10th toughest
If you were drawing a blueprint for a team that was likely to appear in this column, you would essentially be describing last season's Bears. An unlucky team in 2023 and 2024, the Bears got far more than their fair share of breaks for most of the 2025 season.
Here's what I can say confidently: The Bears cannot expect to win 11 games again in 2026 with the same formula. The good news for fans is that they don't appear to be expecting to do so. General manager Ryan Poles made aggressive moves to try to improve the defense, with seven of Chicago's 13 most-used players on that side of the ball in 2025 no longer on the roster, including the four most-used defenders in Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Nahshon Wright and Tremaine Edmunds.
Here's what the article had to say about the Broncos:
Denver Broncos
Record in 2025: 14-3 (9-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer)
Point differential in 2025: plus-90
Projected strength of schedule: 15th easiest
Similar to the Bears, the Broncos had a remarkable habit of getting their offense going at the right time; they were 16th in EPA per play on offense through the first three quarters of games and fifth during the fourth quarter and overtime. The Broncos also got some very well-timed special teams luck with missed kicks when it really helped transform late-game scenarios.
FPI is optimistic about Denver's schedule, and getting that trip to Arrowhead out of the way against a potentially limited Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 is probably a plus for the Broncos. Ten games against the AFC West and NFC West, though, makes me think the schedule might be a little tougher than the algorithm believes. The Broncos could challenge for a division title again in 2026, but that's probably going to come in closer to the 10- or 11-win range this time.
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Other teams mentioned in the article include the Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New England Patriots.
Source: Predicting NFL teams most likely to decline in 2026 season - ESPN
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