SIOUX FALLS -- Republican incumbents Gov. Dennis Daugaard and U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem continue with strong leads over Democratic and independent opponents, according to the Nielson Brothers Polling/Northern Plains News poll, which has been tracking races and ballot issues since Oct. 17.

 

Initiated Measure 17, which is about health care insurers including all willing and qualified providers and Constitutional Amendment Q, allowing keno, roulette and craps in casinos, appear headed for relatively easy passage.

 

Initiated Measure 18, raising the state minimum wage, has gained opposition but still looks likely to pass.

 

NBP/NPN have been tracking public opinion of likely voters across South Dakota since Oct. 17, 2014. The tracking topline numbers are available on the website, nielsonbrotherspolling.com.

 

Dennis Daugaard has built the largest lead among the three major statewide offices. Daugaard receives 63 percent of support, compared with Democrat Susan Wismer’s 27 percent and independent Mike Myers’ 5 percent. Five percent were still undecided.

 

Kristi Noem leads Democratic candidate, Corinna Robinson 60 percent to 37 percent, with 4 percent undecided. A first time candidate, Robinson is on track to receive the highest percentage of votes among the major statewide Democratic candidates.

 

For South Dakota treasurer, Republican Rich Sattgast leads Democrat Denny Pierson, 47 percent to 31 percent, with Libertarian Ken Santema receiving 9 percent of the vote, and 13 percent still undecided.

 

Initiated Measure 17, the doctor choice measure, appears likely to pass, as 50 percent of respondents say they will vote for it, 30 percent will vote against, and 20 percent still say they are unsure.

 

Initiated Measure 18, which raises the minimum wage, faces a closer test. While 51 percent of respondents say they will vote for it, opposition rises to 43 percent and those still unsure have dropped to 7 percent.

 

South Dakota voters continue to support Constitutional Amendment Q, which would change the state constitution to allow roulette, keno and craps in Deadwood and in tribal casinos. While 54 percent plan to vote for it, 37 percent say they will vote against it, with 9 percent still unsure.
President Barack Obama’s job approval rating numbers fall to 38 percent with 18 percent who “strongly approve” but 53 percent “strongly” disapproving.

 

The number of voters that think the state is headed in the “right direction” moves up to 52 percent, with 31 percent saying “wrong direction,” and the rest undecided.
NBP is under contractual obligation to release the U.S. Senate numbers Nov. 4.

 

NBP’s tracking poll includes a different set of likely voters each day, with results averaged on a rolling four day basis. The numbers below represent the final four day totals from the tracking poll, compared with previous four day totals, as well as well as previous NBP surveys.

 

South Dakota Governor
For South Dakota Governor would you vote for Republican Dennis Daugaard, Democrat Susan Wismer, or Independent Mike Myers?
(n=number of responses, moe=margin of error)
                                   n=730             n=673              n=607                          n=572
                                   moe=3.62*      moe=3.78        moe=3.98         moe=4.07
                                    10/30-11/2**   10/23-26          9/21-25                        7/23-28
Daugaard (R):              62.6***           62.3                53.4                              52.9
Wismer (D):                   27.4               26.0                 27.5                             28.5
Myers (I):                        4.9                5.9                 10.3                               6.8
Undecided:                     5.0                5.8                 8.8                                11.8

 

US House
For US House would you vote for Democrat Corinna Robinson, or Republican Kristi Noem?
                              n=732              n=676                         n=615                         n=574
                       moe=3.62        moe=3.77                     moe=3.95                    moe=4.05
                                   10/30-11/2        10/23-26                    9/21-25               7/2328
Kristi Noem (R):         59.5                 56.2                             54.6                        54
Corinna Robinson(D): 36.6                   34.7                            36.6                       36
Undecided:                  3.9                    9.1                              8.8                         10

 

US Senate
For U.S. Senate would you vote for Republican Mike Rounds, Democrat Rick Weiland, Independent Larry Pressler, or Independent Gordon Howie?
                                  
Mike Rounds (R)          Later release.
Rick Weiland (D)
Larry Pressler (I)
Gordon Howie (I)

 

South Dakota Treasurer
For South Dakota Treasurer would you vote for Republican Rich Sattgast Libertarian Ken Santema or for Democrat Denny Pierson?
                                    n=711              n=661
                                    moe=3.67        moe=3.81
                                    10/30/11/2        10/23/26
Rich Sattgast (R):        47.2                 45.7
Denny Pierson (D):    30.8                   27.9
Ken Santema (L):        9.1                  7.0
Undecided                  13.0                 19.5

 

Generic State Senate Race
If the election were held today would you vote for the Republican or Democratic state senate candidate in your district?
                                               n=705              n=653              n=605              n=528
                                              moe=3.69        moe=3.83         moe=3.98        moe=4.26
                                               10/30-11/2        10/23-26        9/21-2              7/23-28
Republican                              50.2                 49.7                   48.6               41.9
Democratic                            37.2                 33.5                    32.1                36.7
Undecided                              11.6                 16.3                    19.3                21.4
Will not vote                             0.9                  0.5                              -

 

Initiated Measure 17
Initiated Measure 17 will be on the 2014 ballot. It will require health insurers to include all willing and qualifiedhealth care providers on their provider lists. If you would vote for initiated measure 17...
                                   n=680
                                   moe=3.75
                                   10/30-11/2
Vote for                      49.9
Vote against                29.7
Unsure                       20.4

 

Initiated Measure 18
Initiated Measure 18 makes three changes to the minimum wage:
First, it raises the minimum wage from $7.25 to $8.50 per hour. Second, it raises the tip wage from $2.13 to 4.25 per hour. Third, the minimum wage and tip wage would rise with the cost of living. If you voted today would you vote for or against this initiative?
                                              n=671               n=612              n=590                        n=502
                                          moe=3.78         moe=3.96        moe=4.03                moe=4.37
                                      10/30-11/2         10/23-26          9/21-25                        7/23-28
Vote for                                  50.7                 50.3                 53.3                              52
Vote against                            42.8                 36.5                 31.9                             28
Unsure                                    6.5                 13.2                   14.9                             20

 

Constitutional Amendment Q
The constitution currently allows card games and slot machines in Deadwood. Constitutional amendment Q would also allow roulette, keno and craps in Deadwood and in tribal casinos. If you would vote for the amendment press one. If against it press two. If unsure press three.
                                   n=659              n=606              n=432
                                   moe=3.81        moe=3.98        moe=4.71
                                   10/30-11/2        10/23-26        10/17-19
Vote for                      54.1                 54.8                 52.0                                                    Vote against               36.6                 33.3                 37.3
Unsure                       9.3                  11.9                 10.7
South Dakota Direction

 

Is South Dakota headed in the right or wrong direction?
                                      n=782          n=728              n=690              n=615
                                   moe=3.5          moe=3.63        moe=3.73         moe=3.92
                                   10/30-11/2        10/23-26        9/21-25          7/23-28
Right direction                51.7             45.6                   46.7               49.8
Wrong direction              30.6             31.5                    29.1              28.1
Undecided                     17.7             22.9                    24.2                22.1

 

How do you rate the job done by President Barack Obama?
                                    n=782             n=728              n=690              n=615
                                    moe=3.5         moe=3.63        moe=3.73        moe=3.95
                                   10/30-11/2      10/23-26          9/21-25            7/23-28
Strongly approve        17.7                 21.1                    17.2             18.9
Somewhat approve     20.1                20.5                    16.7             17.8
Somewhat disappr.       9.4                 8.9                      14.9             13.6
Strongly disapprove    52.8                 49.5                    51.2             49.7

 

*In percentages.
**Results based on the most recent four day weighted results of South Dakota likely voters, from the NBP tracking survey that begin Oct. 17, 2014.
***In percentages.

More From Hot 104.7 - KKLS-FM